How Equitable Earth Approaches Risk Map Development for REDD+

Equitable Earth was built to enable projects that protect and restore our planet, equitably.

We pioneered a standard that ensures nature-based carbon projects deliver real, lasting impact, and our programme has and always will leverage the latest advances in science and technology to help us do this.

The launch of our Terrestrial Forest Conservation Methodology (M002) in 2025 delivered a new, more comprehensive approach to mapping forest risk.

Developed through years of research and refinement, including early collaboration with Dr. James Ball, a leading postdoctoral researcher in remote sensing for tropical forest observation at the University of Cambridge, our Baseline Allocation Module is now operational, and has since undergone independent review by Space Intelligence.

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Faster, more precise tools for protecting forests at scale‍

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Because deforestation and forest degradation continue to accelerate globally under complex and evolving dynamics, addressing them at scale requires timely action, using the right tools.

Project developers, governments, and investors need to know where forests are most at risk, how that risk is evolving over time, and which interventions can deliver the greatest climate, ecological, and social impact. Traditional binary “forest/non-forest” classifications aren’t enough: they’re unable to account for gradual forest degradation, subtle shifts, and biomass losses that occur without full clearing.

M002 uses advanced remote sensing and machine learning to monitor quantitative changes in Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) over time, enabling us to detect both deforestation and degradation. This pixel-level approach produces a living risk map that highlights areas most at risk. Here’s more on how these risk maps are developed, and where they are available today.

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Step 1: Setting the Carbon Budget

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Before any project-specific allocation, we determine a Jurisdictional Reference Level (JRL) based on the last 10 years of biomass loss in a given jurisdiction. The JRL defines a fixed carbon budget, setting the maximum baseline available for allocation across all projects each year and serving as a safeguard against over-crediting.
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Step 2: Building Risk-Maps

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Our model produces risk maps predicting future biomass change over the jurisdiction, offering granular insight into where forests face the greatest threats. It is trained on multiple years of biomass and land-cover changes using cutting-edge datasets provided by Chloris Geospatial and Google Deepmind.
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Step 3: Allocating Baselines Based on the Risk Maps

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Baseline emissions are allocated across the jurisdiction in proportion to pixel-level biomass loss risk. Project boundaries are then overlaid onto this risk map. As a result, projects in areas with higher predicted biomass loss receive higher baselines, incentivising conservation where it matters most. By allocating based on independent, science-driven risk rather than developer claims, we direct climate finance to the forests under the greatest threat.
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Step 4: Credit Issuance Based on Performance

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Projects only receive credits if they achieve measurable carbon reductions. Rather than relying on self-reported performance from the project developer, project outcomes are independently verified each year by Equitable Earth using the latest satellite data.
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Step 5: Ongoing Review and Updates

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Risk maps are updated annually using the latest satellite, biomass, and land cover data, meaning projects never start with a risk map more than one year old. Project baselines are then updated every five years to reflect evolving forest conditions. This continuous review ensures our maps and allocations remain accurate, rigorous, and aligned with the latest scientific insights.

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Where We Work
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Currently, M002 risk maps cover a growing number of jurisdictions, with more being added in the coming months. View the full list of available risk maps here.
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Learn More
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Equitable Earth is committed to continuously improving the methodology.

For a full overview of planned improvements, see our Future Improvements document.

Explore the full M002 methodology and all accompanying documentation, including the Baseline Setting Module.

If you would like to learn more about our latest mapping coverage, get in touch at info@eq-earth.com.

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